Forecasting is extremely difficult because the future holds infinite probabilities and a small action by any individual will change the future by a whole lot ten years down the road, also known as the butterfly or ripple effect. Like any statisticians would say, it's impossible to compile actual data from the entire population, it is impossible to investigate every individuals and note their taste and preferences to predict the future, therefore, we could only make reasonable forecast based on trends and patterns of behaviors. It is also said when we based future trends by observing the past, we should look further to recognise similar patterns of behaviours.
Another alternate method worth looking at is the moment method which recognises event that will steer us away or towards our prediction with their probability and strength if it happens. Sort of remind me of moment generating function from stats theory point of view.
Personally, I felt that instead of looking at present or past for future trends. One possible way is to create an alternate reality with real life stats keyed in, sort of like the Sims and we allow the alternate reality to travel at a faster pace than real life to give us an idea of how decision can affect the society in the future.
No comments:
Post a Comment